As 2025 winds down, many NAR members are asking where the housing market is headed next. Based on the latest data from the National Association of REALTORS®, along with insights from national pricing and mortgage-rate forecasts, the outlook for 2026 is shaping up to be more stable, more predictable, and more opportunity-rich than the past several years.
This month's REALTOR® Store “Market Outlook” collection highlights the tools and resources that can help NAR members translate market conditions into stronger client conversations, smarter marketing, and better business planning for 2026.
A Market Moving Toward Balance — Not Boom or Bust
According to the latest NAR forecast, existing-home sales are expected to rise about 14% in 2026, marking a meaningful rebound after two rate-driven slow years. At the same time, research from outlets such as Realtor.com expect home prices to grow at a modest and sustainable pace, generally in the 1%–2% range nationally.
For NAR members, this points to a very different kind of market landscape:
- No rapid price spike like the pandemic years.
- No broad price collapse despite affordability challenges.
- A healthier, more balanced market where local expertise and strategic pricing matter more than ever.
This shift suggests that REALTORS® who adapt early to changing consumer expectations, shifting buyer demographics, and emerging technology tools will have a clear competitive advantage.
Mortgage Rates: The “New Normal” Is Taking Shape
As of late November 2025, the average 30-year mortgage rate was around 6.23%, per Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. While still higher than pre-2020 levels, this represents a meaningful cooling from the volatility of 2023–2024.
Most credible forecasts anticipate:
- Rates holding in the mid-6% range for much of 2026.
- A gradual improvement in affordability as wage growth and slower price increases align.
- More sellers finally willing to move, reducing the rate-lock effect that constrained inventory.
While rates may not return to the ultra-low era many consumers still hope for, buyers and sellers are adjusting to today’s reality — and that creates an opening for clear, data-driven guidance from NAR members.
Evolving Buyer and Seller Profiles: What the Data Says
The 2025 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers reveals notable shifts shaping today’s market:
- First-time buyers make up only 21% of purchases, an all-time low.
- All-cash transactions are rising, especially in competitive markets.
- Buyer ages continue trending higher due to affordability and longer saving periods.
These demographic changes signal that:
- Consumers need more education, more support, and clearer expectations.
- Pricing strategy conversations may be more nuanced than in past years.
- Market expertise and communication will be key differentiators for REALTORS® in 2026.
How the REALTOR® Store Can Help You Navigate 2026
To help NAR members prepare for the year ahead, the REALTOR® Store’s December “Market Outlook” collection features a range of resources tied directly to what the data suggests about 2026. Several titles also qualify for Right Tools, Right Now 20% OFF member pricing.
Use AI to Compete in a More Balanced Market
Empowering REALTORS® with AI: ChatGPT and the Future of Real Estate for Lead Generation Webinar
RTRN: 20% OFF
As market activity increases, AI-supported marketing gives you a way to scale:
- Lead generation and nurturing sequences
- Local market updates tied to 2026 trends
- Client education tools and listing presentations
This webinar is ideal for NAR members who want to stay ahead as competition grows.
Strengthen Your Market Conversations with Trusted NAR Data
2025 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers (Digital Download)
The Profile remains one of the most effective tools for:
- Responding to affordability questions
- Understanding buyer financing strategies
- Enhancing listing appointments with credible insights
Prepare Sellers for a Data-Driven Market
Sellers Brochure Bundle (Physical)
RTRN: 20% OFF
These brochures help you communicate the realities of the 2026 market in a simple, professional, client-ready format — ideal for listing appointments, open houses, and follow-ups.
Reinforce Your Expertise and Value Story
NAR’s Little Book Series: VIP 9-Pack Bundle (Physical)
RTRN: 20% OFF
Perfect as both professional development and client-facing education, these concise titles help you communicate the depth of expertise NAR members bring to every transaction.
Support Clients Focused on Wealth-Building and Long-Term Strategy
The Color of Real Estate: Unlocking the Secrets to Generational Wealth
RTRN: 20% OFF
A powerful resource for navigating conversations around access, equity, and long-term financial planning.
Unstuck Yourself: A 30-Day Proven Sales Playbook
RTRN: 20% OFF
Ideal for NAR members resetting their business for a more active 2026 market.
Entering 2026 with Confidence and Clarity
The emerging consensus is clear: 2026 will not be defined by extreme conditions, but by balance, strategy, and informed decision-making. As sales volume increases and rates stabilize, NAR members equipped with the right data, tools, and client resources will be best positioned to thrive.
Explore the REALTOR® Store’s December “Market Outlook” collection today to prepare for a stronger, more confident 2026.
About the Author
Dylan Poe is the Manager of Product Marketing for the Strategic Business Innovation and Technology team at the National Association of REALTORS®, where he oversees product development and management. With a deep understanding of the challenges and opportunities within the real estate industry, Dylan works to provide NAR members with valuable resources and tools to support their success. Passionate about helping real estate professionals grow their businesses, Dylan regularly contributes insights on industry trends and strategies through the REALTOR® Store blog.
